진보적 자유주의, 복지국가, 조정시장경제, 합의제 민주주의 등 한국 사회의 질적 발전에 필요한 대안담론들을 제시하고, 그 구현 방안들을 논의하고 도출해내는 열린 토론의 장입니다.

[제4회 대안담론포럼 - 복지국가 건설의 정치경제학]

 

 

복지국가 증세전략과 재정주권운동
- 한국에서 어떻게 복지국가를 만들 것인가? -

 

오건호(사회공공연구소 연구실장)

 

1. 시작하며

 

대한민국에서 복지국가 운동이 빠르게 진행되고 있다. 아이들 점심이 보편복지를 지나 복지국가 담론으로 확장되는데 2년도 걸리지 않았다. 대한민국은 압축 근대화에 이어 복지국가 건설에서도 ‘한국형’이라는 새로운 역사를 쓸 것으로 기대된다. 빠른 속도는 복지민심의 힘을 보여주는 긍정적 신호임에 틀림이 없다. 반복지 세력의 저항을 감안하면 우리나라와 같은 복지후진국에선 에너지를 응축해 도약하는 방식이 오히려 현실적인 경로일 수 있다.


그럼에도 복지국가로 가는 길에서 넘어야 할 많은 산들이 놓여 있다. 당장 복지 민심에 부응하기 위해 복지 재정이 대폭 확충돼야 하고, 지속가능한 복지를 위해선 현행 민간중심의 복지공급 인프라도 공공화해야 하며, 복지수요를 효과적으로 조절하기 위해선 노동시장의 안정화도 시급하다. 이러한 과제를 수행한 복지주체의 형성도 빼놓을 수 없는 과제다.


필자는 한국형 복지국가 건설에서 이를 추동할 ‘대중주체’가 형성될 수 있느냐가 매우 중요하다고 판단한다. 서구 복지국가 건설과정에서 보듯이, 복지국가는 ‘정치적 프로젝트’이고 이를 추동한 대중적 복지주체가 필요하다. 우리나라에서는 서구에서 발견되는 강한 진보정당, 노동조합, 풀뿌리네트워크는 취약하다. 따라서 복지재정, 복지공급체계, 일자리개혁 등 각각의 과제를 달성하는 과정에서 ‘어떻게 대중적 복지주체를 형성할 것인가?’라는 문제의식이 결합되어야 한다.


이 글은 대중적 복지주체 형성이라는 문제의식에서 복지재정 확충방안을 다룬다. 현재 우리나라 복지재정은 보편복지를 실현하기에는 턱없이 부족하다. 조세부담률이 낮고 과세불신이 존재한다. 이러한 현실에서 어떻게 복지재정을 마련할 것인가? 만약 증세가 불가피하다면 어떠한 증세운동을 펼쳐야할까? 필자는 이 글에서 재정주권운동의 맥락에서 복지국가 증세를 제안한다.

 

2. 증세는 독배인가? : 보편복지 재정확충을 위한 두갈래 길

 

근래 우리나라에서 보편/선별 복지 논쟁이 진행되었다. 이 논쟁은 복지를 바라보는 인식틀에 관한 것이지만, 그 밑바닥에는 복지재정 규모에 대한 상이한 가정이 깔려 있다. 선별복지론은 현재의 ‘제한된 예산’을 전제하고, 그래서 선택형, 맞춤형의 용어를 동원하며 예산의 ‘합리적 배분’을 강조한다. 사실 ‘제한된 예산’으로 부잣집 아이들에게까지 급식을 제공할지, 이것을 학습준비물에 배정할 지는 쉽게 답할 수 있는 질문이 아니다. 따라서 보편복지론이 선별복지론의 ‘예산의 합리적 배분’ 논리를 근본적으로 넘어서기 위해서는 재정규모 가정 자체를 바꾸어야 한다. 그래서 올해 초부터 보편복지 진영 내부에서 복지재원 확충방안을 두고 논의가 전개되었다. 대략 구분하면, 비과세 감면 축소·재정지출 개혁 등으로 재원을 확보하자는 ‘非증세론’과 증세가 불가피하다는 ‘증세론’으로 의견이 나누어진다.

 

1) 보편복지 재정확충방안 : 비증세 vs. 증세

현재 비증세 복지재정확충론은 민주당에 의해 대표된다. 민주당은 지난 8월 향후 연 33조원의 보편복지 재원방안을 내놓았다. 사실상 ‘증세 없이’ 연 33조원을 마련하고, 이 중 17조원을 3+1(무상급식, 무상보육, 무상의료 + 반값등록금)에, 나머지 16조원은 일자리, 주거, 취약계층(저소득, 노인, 장애인 등) 복지에 사용하겠다는 것이다.
필자가 판단하기에 약 30조원 규모의 민주당의 복지재정 방안은 보편복지에 필요한 금액을 모두 합산하기 보다는 증세 없이 조달가능한 규모를 계산하고 복지지출 내역을 여기에 맞추는 방식으로 이루어진 것으로 보인다. 그런데 현재 제기되는 복지 민심을 제대로 반영하려면 60조원 이상이 재정이 필요하다. 이러한 민주당의 방안으로는 시민사회나 진보정당과 함께 내년 정치 공간에서 복지국가를 향한 연대정치를 구현하기도 쉽지 않을 듯하다.

 
반면 진보진영은 증세론의 입장에 서 있다. 국민의 조세 저항을 우회하고 싶겠지만, 보편 복지를 위한 재원을 지출 개혁만으로 마련하기는 어려운 게 현실이다. 민심이 바라는 보편 복지 재정을 마련하기 위해선 지출 개혁과 증세 모두 필요하다. 올해 초 진보신당은 총 59조원에 달하는 사회연대 복지국가 구상을 발표했고, 민주노동당도 ‘55조+α’ 규모의 노동 중심 평화복지 초안을 내놓았다. 진보진영은 약 60조원의 복지재정을 확보해야 하는 과제를 안고 있다. 대략 토목지출 절감, 비과세 감면 축소 등 지출개혁을 통해 마련할 수 있는 재정규모가 최대 30조라고 보면, 나머지 30조원 이상은 증세를 통해 조달되어야 한다.

 
결국 양 입장은 각각 강약점을 지닌다. 비증세론은 국민들의 조세 저항을 피해갈수 있지만 지니지반 정말 보편복지세력인지에 대한 정체성 논란이 부메랑으로 돌아올 개연성이 크다. 증세결합론은 보편복지 민심의 요구를 반영하는 강점을 지니지만 증세를 추진해야 하는 상황에 처해 있다. 필자는 후자의 입장에 서 있다. 그렇다면 과연 어떻게 증세할 것인가?


[전체보기] 오건호_복지국가 증세전략과 재정주권운동.pdf


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39 고원, "연합정치의 유형과 복지국가의 진로"(제4회 대안담론포럼 2011.12.8) [236] IPM 2011-12-09 4326
38 김상조, "분배친화적 성장을 위한 기업정책"(제3회 대안담론포럼 2011.6.3) file [220] IPM 2011-08-16 4921
37 김영태, "어떤 비례대표제인가? 한국비례제의 제도설계" (제5회 대안담론포럼 2012.6.27) file IPM 2012-07-06 3085
36 김유선, "한국 노사관계 진단과 대안 모색" (제7회 대안담론포럼 2013. 8. 23) file IPM 2013-08-28 2207
35 김정주, "새로운 산업생태계의 구성과 대안적 산업정책의 가능성 (제7회 대안담론포럼 2013. 8. 23) file IPM 2013-09-02 2305
34 김호기, "한국의 거버넌스 모색: 사회갈등과 거버넌스 구축의 과제" (제6회 대안담론포럼 2013. 4. 24) imagefile IPM 2013-07-08 2213
33 남찬섭,"한국사회서비스 제도화의 현황과 전망"(제3회 대안담론포럼 2011.6.4) file [23] IPM 2012-07-04 3947
32 박상훈, "누가 어떻게 정치를 하나" (제5회 대안담론포럼 2012.6.27) file IPM 2012-07-06 2707
31 서복경, "공직선거법과 민주주의" (제5회 대안담론포럼 2012.6.27) file [79] IPM 2012-07-06 3455
30 선학태, "왜 비례대표제인가? : 경제민주화, 복지국가, 그리고 합의제 민주주의" (제5회 대안담론포럼 2012.6.27) file [303] IPM 2012-07-06 3768
29 선학태,"시장조정기제로서의 사회적 합의주의: 한국형 모델"(제2회 대안담론포럼 2010.12.2) file [46] IPM 2011-08-16 4119
28 신동면, "어떤 복지국가인가?:복지담론의 평가와 발전 방향"(제4회 대안담론포럼 2011.12.8) [138] IPM 2011-12-09 4073
27 신동면, '스페인의 사회협약: 경쟁력 자합주의의 발전" (제6회 대안담론포럼 2013. 4. 24) file IPM 2013-07-08 2429
26 싱크탱크연구팀, "외환위기 이후 금융·재벌 체제 변화와 대안모델" (제7회 대안담론포럼 2013. 8. 23) file IPM 2013-08-28 2275
25 오건호, "공공부문 대안체제 모색: 공공기관을 서민의 벗으로" (제7회 대안담론포럼 2013. 8. 23) file IPM 2013-08-28 2307
» 오건호, "복지국가 증세전략과 재정주권운동"(제4회 대안담론포럼 2011.12.8) [383] IPM 2011-12-09 11294
23 유종일, "성장과 분배의 선순환"(제3회 대안담론포럼 2011.6.3) file [48] IPM 2011-08-16 4583


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